Limited Defensive Response

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Saudi Arabia and the United States focus on hardening air defenses rather than launching a broad campaign inside Yemen. The Houthis keep some capability, but better interception rates and route changes prevent the flight disruption from worsening materially.

What it moves

Consumer Services−0.8%
Industrials+0.7%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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