Possible scenario
Loyalist Alternative Chosen
20% Chance
Trump ultimately bypasses Clayton and leans toward a more overtly political loyalist to manage the West Wing. This would signal a sharper campaign-style operation and potentially less predictable policy process than a Clayton-led staff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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