Possible scenario
Clayton Takes Command
38% Chance
Jay Clayton moves from shortlist to the leading internal choice because he offers Trump a loyal, Wall Street-credible manager after the White House staffing panic. His prior roles around markets, intelligence, and AI make him a technocratic option who could calm donors while preserving Trump’s control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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