Possible scenario
Race remains unresolved
16% Chance
Hamilton’s Q3 haul and Marshall’s outside support produce saturation-level spending without a decisive break. The contest remains a true toss-up into election night, with turnout mechanics and provisional ballots determining the final result.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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