Possible scenario
Marshall mounts comeback
30% Chance
The Senate Leadership Fund’s rescue spending helps Marshall reframe the race around national party control and conservative turnout. Hamilton’s fundraising surge keeps the contest competitive, but Kansas’s Republican lean ultimately gives Marshall a path back.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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