Possible scenario
Hamilton consolidates lead
44% Chance
Adam Hamilton’s $10.6 million Q3 haul reinforces the polling trend showing him ahead of Sen. Roger Marshall. The Republican governor’s endorsement and Cook’s shift toward Democrats make a Kansas Democratic pickup increasingly plausible, though still unusual for the state.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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