Possible scenario
Security Response Escalates
25% Chance
The Cabal administration responds more aggressively as protests block major roads and pressure builds from conservative voters demanding order. This raises the risk of injuries, arrests, and international criticism, but still falls short of a regime-level crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.