Possible scenario
Peaceful Opposition Broadens
40% Chance
Gustavo Petro and allied unions, student groups, and left-wing parties convert the first large protest into a broader but mostly peaceful opposition campaign against President María Fernanda Cabal. The government avoids overreaction, and the movement becomes a recurring political challenge rather than an immediate institutional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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