Possible scenario
Institutions Channel Crisis
20% Chance
Colombia's Congress, Constitutional Court, and municipal governments absorb the confrontation by creating formal venues for complaints over policing, labor policy, and social spending. Petro remains the most visible opposition figure, but the conflict shifts from the street to institutional negotiation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.