Possible scenario
NATO Border Risk
15% Chance
The scale of the Russian attack increases the chance of airspace violations, debris impacts, or NATO air-defense engagement near Poland, Romania, or the Black Sea. Even without a deliberate Russian strike on NATO, accidental escalation becomes the dominant market concern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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