Possible scenario
Diplomacy Survives Strike
25% Chance
The Russian barrage is treated by Washington and Kyiv as coercive signaling rather than proof that diplomacy is impossible. The United States uses the attack to rally allies behind a tougher negotiating posture, while Russia leaves enough ambiguity to avoid formally killing the process.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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