Possible scenario
Air War Intensifies
45% Chance
Russia sustains a high-volume drone and missile campaign to demonstrate that it can veto a U.S.-backed peace track by force. Washington and European capitals respond with faster air-defense deliveries, but negotiations stall as Kyiv refuses concessions under bombardment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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