Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation Follows
30% Chance
A limited military response is plausible because the latest airport attacks caused fatalities and followed alleged Saudi strikes in Yemen. Washington is likely to support Saudi defenses and intelligence sharing, while trying to prevent a direct US-Houthi cycle of retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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