Alert Stays Contained

The most likely path is a contained security posture: the United States warns citizens and personnel, Saudi Arabia raises air-defense readiness, and no immediate wider confrontation follows. Houthis retain an ability to harass Saudi targets, but both Washington and Riyadh initially avoid steps that would collapse the fragile 2025 de-escalation framework.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.