Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reopens Channels
20% Chance
Omani and UN mediators have an incentive to prevent the Saudi-Houthi truce from fully breaking down. If Riyadh and Washington conclude that deterrent strikes risk a wider conflict, a renewed backchannel could stabilize airports and shipping routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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