Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
25% Chance
The Houthis respond to the raids by expanding the target set beyond Yemeni front lines. This scenario becomes market-relevant if Saudi cities, energy facilities or Red Sea shipping routes face renewed drone and missile threats.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.