Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
18% Chance
Oman and the UN use the renewed fighting to push both sides back toward talks, arguing that neither the Houthis nor the Saudi-backed government can achieve a quick military victory. This path is plausible because both sides have recently shown a preference for pauses after sharp escalations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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