Possible scenario
Controlled Escalation
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of air and artillery exchanges around Sanaa, Saada and Taiz without a decisive breakthrough. Riyadh and Muscat keep backchannels open, while the internationally recognized government tries to translate recent Taiz momentum into pressure on Houthi command sites.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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