Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reopens
22% Chance
The visible split between Trump’s hawkish rhetoric and Vance’s reluctance creates room for intermediaries to revive a freeze-for-restraint formula. Iran’s reported September enrichment halt gives diplomats a concrete basis for a temporary de-escalation arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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