Possible scenario
Washington Slows Action
27% Chance
The Vance refusal to endorse Netanyahu’s framing becomes the dominant signal in Washington, limiting U.S. participation and reducing the chance of immediate joint strikes. Israel continues planning and messaging, but U.S. political and military constraints slow escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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