Possible scenario
Contained Israel Escalation
38% Chance
Netanyahu uses the Trump call to build political cover for renewed Israeli action, but Washington stops short of formally joining the campaign. The most likely military path is a calibrated Israeli strike package against nuclear, missile, or IRGC targets while the U.S. provides intelligence and air-defense support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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