Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
20% Chance
Moscow responds to the destruction of the Rostov tanks with a larger missile and drone barrage against Ukrainian power, rail, and fuel infrastructure. The escalation is significant but remains within the existing war pattern rather than a new regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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