Possible scenario
Localized Fuel Disruption
45% Chance
The strike damages storage capacity at the Rostov terminal but does not cripple Russia's broader fuel distribution network. Moscow reroutes supplies through depots in Krasnodar, Voronezh, and Volgograd while repairs begin under military protection.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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