Possible scenario
Campaign Intensifies
25% Chance
Kyiv treats the Rostov hit as part of a sustained campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure supporting the war. Additional strikes target depots, pumping stations, and refinery-linked storage across southern and central Russia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.