Republican Rebound

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republicans recover from the Gonzales resignation and primary infighting by unifying around a stronger nominee and a disciplined border message. Padilla Stout’s win becomes a short-lived Democratic breakthrough rather than a lasting realignment.

What it moves

Energy+0.1%
Finance+0.1%
Market volatility▼ down
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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