Possible scenario
Ukrainian Countermeasures
20% Chance
Ukraine adapts operationally by increasing air-defense coverage, hardening bridge approaches, and targeting Russian launch infrastructure. This path is plausible because Kyiv has repeatedly adjusted after Russian attack-pattern changes, especially around critical infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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