Possible scenario
Limited Bridge Pressure
45% Chance
Russia continues using drones against the Pivdennyi Bridge and nearby Kyiv logistics routes, but damage remains repairable. This is the most likely path because the attack fits Russia's pattern of testing Ukrainian air defenses and infrastructure resilience without necessarily committing scarce missiles to a sustained bridge-destruction campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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