Possible scenario
Infrastructure Escalation
25% Chance
Moscow turns the Pivdennyi Bridge strikes into a larger campaign against transport and energy infrastructure ahead of winter. This would be a more material geopolitical escalation, though still below a systemic crisis for global markets unless NATO territory or major energy transit routes are affected.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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