Possible scenario
Saudi-Houthi Escalation
30% Chance
Houthi forces continue missile and drone attacks into Saudi territory, prompting a sharper Saudi military response while avoiding a full regional war. The escalation increases oil-risk premia and risk aversion, but damage to energy infrastructure remains limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.