Possible scenario
Ceasefire Diplomacy Returns
20% Chance
Rising displacement and fear of renewed Saudi-Houthi escalation push Oman, the United Nations, Saudi Arabia, and Houthi representatives back toward talks. Fighting continues in pockets, but both sides accept humanitarian pauses or limited de-escalation steps.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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