Possible scenario
Contained Yemen Stalemate
40% Chance
The government offensive toward Sanaa slows against entrenched Houthi defenses, while Saudi Arabia limits its response to air defense, border security, and selective strikes. Fighting remains severe for civilians but largely contained inside Yemen, keeping global market effects modest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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