Possible scenario
Sustained Air Disruption
30% Chance
Houthi forces continue launching drones and missiles toward multiple Saudi cities, forcing intermittent airport closures and keeping civil aviation on alert. The conflict remains below a regional-war threshold, but the persistence of attacks raises the near-term risk premium for Gulf transport and energy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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