Possible scenario
Defensive Containment
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses contain the incoming Houthi drone and missile threat without a confirmed direct hit on Riyadh airport or major civilian infrastructure. The airport closure proves temporary, with Riyadh using the incident to justify tighter air-defense posture rather than immediate large-scale retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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