Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Strikes
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with targeted airstrikes against Houthi launch sites, radar assets, and drone storage facilities in Yemen. The response is calibrated to deter further attacks, but it raises the risk of additional Houthi launches toward Saudi cities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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