Enforcement Escalates

5%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Regulators treat Nvidia’s reporting demand as evidence that earlier cloud rentals may have enabled export-control evasion. This is a lower-probability but higher-impact path because it could involve subpoenas, penalties or forced contract terminations.

What it moves

Technology−1.7%
Business Services−0.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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