Possible scenario
Data-Rich Success
45% Chance
The explosion is treated as a post-splashdown failure rather than a loss of the orbital test mission. SpaceX and NASA emphasize that Starship reached orbit, reentered, and splashed down, making the event a qualified success with fixable recovery-system issues.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX+3.0%
- RKLB+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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