Possible scenario
Trump Holds Line
25% Chance
Trump may decide that retreating would weaken his trade brand and keep the Canadian tariffs intact despite candidate defections. This would preserve uncertainty for manufacturers and retailers, but the market effect would be moderated because investors already know the policy is controversial inside the GOP.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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