Tariff Retreat Builds

The most likely path is that vulnerable Republicans keep distancing themselves from the Canada tariffs and the White House responds with exemptions, delays, or partial relief rather than a full reversal. The political pressure is strongest in auto, agriculture, and industrial states where Canadian retaliation is targeting midterm battlegrounds.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.