Possible scenario
Congress Challenges Tariffs
20% Chance
A bipartisan bloc could use the midterm pressure to force a congressional vote limiting or disapproving the tariffs. The House already rejected Canada tariffs in February 2026, so vulnerable Republicans have a procedural and political template for escalating beyond campaign messaging.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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