Possible scenario
Western Military Response
25% Chance
The strikes trigger a coordinated Western response focused on air defense, sanctions, and embassy drawdowns rather than direct intervention. The most likely path is more equipment for Ukraine and tighter restrictions on Russian finance and missile supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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