Possible scenario
Conventional Kyiv Barrage
45% Chance
Russia carries out a large conventional missile and drone strike on Kyiv and nearby energy infrastructure after warning foreign diplomats to leave. The attack is severe but remains geographically limited to Ukraine, avoiding direct NATO casualties or a formal change in Western military posture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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