Possible scenario
Warning Stays Limited
15% Chance
Russia's warning proves partly coercive, designed to empty embassies and signal escalation rather than immediately inflict maximum damage. Backchannel pressure through Turkey, Switzerland, or the UN helps limit the first strike wave or delay it.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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