Possible scenario
Regional Spillover Risk
15% Chance
The war stays centered on Ukraine, but the scale of drone attacks increases the chance of debris, airspace violations or retaliatory strikes affecting neighboring states and Black Sea logistics. This is less likely than continued attrition, but it would carry a larger short-term risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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