Possible scenario
Grid Under Siege
40% Chance
Russia continues wide drone and missile raids against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure as winter approaches. The pattern remains inside Ukraine and resembles prior winter pressure campaigns rather than a broader regional escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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