Possible scenario
Kharkiv Escalation Risk
20% Chance
Russia could combine civilian-area strikes with renewed pressure near the Kharkiv front to stretch Ukrainian defenses. This would be more consequential than the single grocery store strike, but still most likely remains a regional escalation within the existing war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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