Possible scenario
Kharkiv Attrition Continues
45% Chance
Russia continues using missiles, glide bombs, and drones against civilian areas in Kharkiv without an immediate ground breakthrough. The attack fits the established pattern of trying to make the city harder to live in while Ukraine prioritizes air-defense coverage for major urban centers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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