Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
25% Chance
Ukraine uses the Kharkiv deaths to press the United States, Germany, and other allies for additional interceptors and air-defense systems. The most likely response is incremental support rather than a sudden change in NATO rules of engagement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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