Selloff Stabilizes Quickly

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

0.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Investors conclude the 12% drop largely priced in the disappointment from a modest Q3 beat and softer tone. Caterpillar’s prior 2026 outlook upgrades tied to AI power demand and resilient sales keep long-only holders from exiting aggressively.

What it moves

Industrials+0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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