Possible scenario
Melenchon Breakthrough
25% Chance
Jean-Luc Melenchon becomes the main anti-Le Pen candidate if the center and traditional right remain fragmented. His ceiling remains a problem, but tactical anti-RN voting could still make him competitive in a second round.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Utilities -1.5%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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