Possible scenario
Centrist Rebound
20% Chance
The tested runoffs may overstate polarization if a center or center-right candidate consolidates Macronist, Republican and moderate-left voters before the first round. This remains plausible because both Le Pen and Melenchon have high unfavorable ratings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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